There seems to be a widely held opinion that this election was close.
In my last article, I predicted the outcome for Nevada based on 86% of votes counted so far. In this article, I’m giving the same treatment to Arizona, based on 86% of its votes reported as of the time of this writing.
Nevada has 86% of its votes reported and won’t announce additional results until later today. But it’s pretty easy to crunch the numbers because it has only 22 counties.
Check out this excellent video from fivethirtyeight.com on why the polls missed the result in 2016 (although they were closer than you might think) and what sort of adjustments they’re making in 2020.
In what now seems a particularly prescient piece of journalism, back in April, fivethirtyeight.com asked the question “What Happens If A Presidential Nominee Can No Longer Run For Office?".
